We recently conducted an exclusive poll for Byline Times to discover the English public‘s political thoughts and feelings ahead of the local elections that took place last Thursday.

Our poll was conducted from 23-28th April and featured a sample of 1,000 adults in England, weighted to population profile, with fieldwork split equally between London and the rest of England where voting was taking place, to allow regional comparison.

Results revealed that half of Labour’s voters were set to abandon the party in England and predictions that Reform UK and The Green Party would gain seats. 

The poll results also showed: 

• Just 50% of Labour’s 2024 voters still planned to vote for the party in last week’s local elections in England – compared to 82% of Reform’s general election voters and 80% of the Green party’s voters.
• 42% of those surveyed across England said they would consider voting tactically, with 9% already planning to do so. Openness to tactical voting was highest among Lib Dem and Green intenders.
• National economic issues appeared to be the dominant factor deciding people’s votes locally.
• 52% picked the economy and cost of living as one of the main issues driving their vote, compared to 42% who said the NHS and just 35% who said immigration. More local issues such as waste collection (14%) and parks (10%) were less likely to be a driving factor in people’s votes.
• Across the country, 61% of those voters surveyed said the Labour Government’s performance had been poor, with even Labour voters more likely to have a negative opinion of its record than a positive one.
• Conservative support in London, where the party held the mayoralty for eight years between 2008 and 2016, has fallen to just 16%.
• Once the voters who said they don’t know how they are going to vote were excluded, Labour were on 27%, Reform (after rounding) were on 27% and 28% respectively, followed by the Conservatives on 19% and the Greens on 17%.

Our seat change predictions aligned with the local election results – the Labour Party lost 1496 seats (down from 2564), whilst Reform UK gained 1451 seats (up from 2) and The Green Party gained 411 (up from 176).

Read the full article “Exclusive Poll: Half of Labour’s Voters Set to Abandon Party in England as Keir Starmer’s ‘London Wall’ Crumbles” from Byline Times.

As always, full poll tables are available here.